Experts said that the Central Economic Work Conference made clear the macro policy of 202 1, which gave the market a "reassurance". Next year, China will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, which will be adjusted flexibly according to the economic and financial operation, and remain accurate and effective, but it will not suddenly tighten sharply in operation. Specifically, in terms of monetary policy, the probability of a comprehensive RRR interest rate cut is not great, but the targeted support policies for small and micro enterprises are expected to have certain continuity; In terms of fiscal policy, the scale of special bond issuance is limited, but the overall strength of fiscal policy will not shrink, and the support for key areas will be more concentrated.
Macro-policy should maintain "three natures"
The meeting pointed out that next year's macro policies should be continuous, stable and sustainable. We should continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, maintain the necessary support for economic recovery, operate the policy more accurately and effectively, do not make a sharp turn, and grasp the timeliness and effectiveness of the policy. We should make good use of the precious time window, concentrate on promoting reform and innovation, and make a good start for the 14 th Five-Year Plan with high-quality development.
"In 2020, in response to the epidemic, China introduced more temporary and phased measures. With the recent improvement of economic indicators, 202 1 economy and society will return to normal, and how to adjust these measures has attracted much attention. The tone of the Central Economic Work Conference gave the market a' reassuring'. " Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhilian Finance, said.
Liao Zhiming, chief analyst of TF securities banking, believes that "no sharp turn" means that macro policies will maintain certain continuity and stability and will not suddenly tighten sharply. In 2020, in order to hedge the impact of the epidemic, the countercyclical adjustment will be significantly increased, and the macro leverage ratio will be significantly improved. With the effective prevention and control of the epidemic and the gradual improvement of the economy, it is increasingly necessary to stabilize leverage, and it is necessary to balance the relationship between economic growth and risk prevention and leverage stabilization.
Liang Si, a researcher at China Bank Research Institute, said that on the basis of ensuring the continuity and stability of policies, it is necessary to strengthen the effect of previous policies, continue to promote the innovation of policy tools, and further ensure the sustainability of policies. For example, the 202 1 deferred debt service policy is about to expire, so it is necessary to make forward-looking policy considerations in advance to ensure the continuity of the policy.
"Considering 20021year, the COVID-19 epidemic is still the biggest uncertainty. The prospect of global economic recovery is still uncertain, and external uncertainty is still large. In particular, the global ultra-low interest rate environment may accelerate capital inflows and have a certain impact on China's policy operation space. Therefore, macroeconomic policies should not only consider escorting the steady economic growth, but also prepare for emergencies, rationally grasp the timing and rhythm of regulation, and ensure that China's economy and finance remain healthy and stable. " Liang Si said.
Yang, chief economist of Shen Wan Hongyuan, believes that the focus of macro-control is not only "looseness" or "tightness". Starting from next year, China will gradually turn the overall perspective of macro-control back to the overall thinking before the epidemic, that is, to solve the long-term problems, deep-seated problems and "great changes in a hundred years" faced by the development of the 14 th Five-Year Plan.
A prudent monetary policy is flexible and accurate.
The meeting pointed out that a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, accurate, reasonable and moderate, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing basically matching the nominal economic growth rate, keep the macro leverage ratio basically stable, properly handle the relationship between economic recovery and risk prevention, replenish bank capital through multiple channels, improve the legal system of bond market, increase financial support for scientific and technological innovation, small and micro enterprises and green development, deepen the market-oriented reform of interest rate exchange rate, and maintain the basic stability of RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.
"While adhering to a stable tone, monetary policy emphasizes the eight-character policy of' flexibility, accuracy, rationality and moderation'." Dong Ximiao believes that flexibility requires timely adjustment according to the needs of national economic and social development. If the economy recovers quickly, some phased policies may be withdrawn; Precision requires liquidity to drip irrigation into key areas and weak links more accurately, and increase support for scientific and technological innovation, small and micro enterprises and green development; Reasonable, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale basically matching the nominal economic growth rate, and keep the liquidity at a reasonable level; Moderately, it will neither make the market feel "short of money" nor "flood irrigation", keep the macro leverage ratio stable, and seek a balance between restoring the economy and preventing risks.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, predicts that some policies can be withdrawn when they expire. For example, at the beginning of this year, the central bank took out 300 billion yuan of refinancing to support financial institutions to increase their support for enterprises producing and transporting epidemic prevention materials, and provided ultra-low loan interest rates. At present, production has entered the normal state, and this policy may be withdrawn when it expires. However, some policies should still be postponed. For example, in view of the problem of delaying the repayment of principal and interest of small and micro enterprises, financial institutions will continue to be encouraged to support small and micro enterprises by renewing loans without repaying principal, so as to maintain the stability of their capital flow and prevent the failure of policies from causing operational difficulties for small and micro enterprises. "For the two monetary policy tools directly facing the real economy, we should consider further optimization and improvement, and position them as long-term policy tools to support small and medium-sized enterprises and give full play to the supporting role of finance in the real economy." He suggested.
Talking about the policy operation next year, Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications, predicted that it is unlikely that the central bank will reduce RRR and cut interest rates in an all-round way in 20021,but it does not rule out the possibility of supporting small and medium-sized enterprises and manufacturing industries by directionally lowering the deposit reserve ratio.
Yin Heng, a researcher at the National Development and Strategy Institute of Renmin University of China, said that since the third quarter of this year, there has been a marginal adjustment in monetary policy. We should pay close attention to the current economic operation, maintain a moderately tight monetary policy, ensure a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and especially guard against economic and technological downside risks.
According to Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, the policy interest rate is expected to remain stable next year, but the market interest rate center will move up, the scale of new credit and social financing will be slightly reduced, and the characteristics of directional drip irrigation of structural monetary policy will become more obvious.
A proactive fiscal policy to improve quality and efficiency
The meeting pointed out that a proactive fiscal policy should improve quality, increase efficiency and be more sustainable, maintain moderate expenditure intensity, enhance financial security for major national strategic tasks, actively promote scientific and technological innovation, accelerate economic restructuring and income distribution, and effectively resolve the hidden debt risks of local governments. Party and government organs should persist in living a tight life.
Yin Heng said that in the past, China implemented an unconventional proactive fiscal policy. In the future, we should not set a timetable for the transition from unconventional proactive fiscal policy to conventional proactive fiscal policy too early, but should pay close attention to economic trends. The adjustment of fiscal deficit ratio, the appropriate adjustment of special debt scale, the withdrawal of subsidies for small and medium-sized enterprises, and the adjustment of direct funds from the central government should be carefully made according to the macroeconomic trend, and the continuity of policies should be maintained as much as possible. In addition, the efficiency and effect of current fiscal policy expenditure need to be improved, which needs special attention.
Wen Bin said that the fiscal policy emphasizes improving quality and increasing efficiency, which involves two aspects: on the one hand, the financial strength will not shrink significantly next year. Under the influence of this year's epidemic, the fiscal policy is unprecedented, and the general fiscal scale, including special national debt and special debt, exceeds 8.5 trillion yuan. Next year, the general fiscal scale will still maintain moderate growth, and it is more appropriate to set the fiscal deficit ratio at around 3%. In terms of local government special bonds, the scale of new special bonds may be around 3.3 trillion next year, slightly lower than this year. However, it should be noted that at present, some local governments are facing great financial pressure, so we should give full play to the role of local government special bonds and support the steady growth of finance to benefit people's livelihood. On the other hand, we should optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure and pay more attention to the effect of fiscal expenditure. It is necessary to strengthen financial support for some shortcomings and weak links in people's livelihood, continue to reduce taxes and fees for the real economy, and reduce the operating costs of market players.
Tang Jianwei predicted that next year, there will be no more special anti-epidemic government bonds, the financial deficit ratio may return to about 3%, and the scale of local special bonds issuance should also decline, but the annual fiscal expenditure will still be larger than this year, and the fiscal expenditure will not be weakened, and the quality and efficiency will be higher.