It is important to see the general trend clearly. The article that Chivalrous Island is going to push today is to help you see it clearly.
one
Uncle Island has recently seen many interpretations of the Central Economic Work Conference. You may wish to have a taste:
"Steady monetary policy should ... unblock the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and increase medium and long-term financing of manufacturing industry", which means that credit supply to manufacturing industry will be increased in 2020; "Better alleviating the financing difficulties of private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises" means that there is still room for interest rate cuts next year.
After some analysis, some people come to the conclusion that "interest rate reduction" and "flood irrigation" are already on the way, and the downward pressure still depends on "opening the floodgates and releasing water" to stimulate the economy.
But can it really last?
Relaxing credit during the economic downturn is a method that many countries have tried, but the result is not ideal. Since the international financial crisis, developed economies such as Europe, America and Japan have implemented unprecedented quantitative easing. Although the temporary pain of economic recession has eased, structural reform has progressed slowly, deep-seated contradictions are constantly fermenting, political polarization and populist tendencies are prominent, macro-policy space has become narrower, and ammunition to deal with the next potential crisis is more limited.
What does this give us? If the old prescription can't cure the problem, it must be changed. Only by finding the root cause and prescribing the right medicine can we solve the economic problems.
Where is the "root" of China's economy? In short, the embarrassment of the transition period-we can no longer take the old road of "Iron Gong Ji" to drive development. In this way, the input-output ratio is getting lower and lower, but the side effects are getting bigger and bigger.
So what should we do? Replace backward production capacity with advanced production capacity, adjust the structure on the supply side, that is, on the production side, develop high-tech industries, improve production efficiency, raise the economic quality to a higher level, and gain the power of sustainable development. If it goes against logic, just opening the currency gate and letting the funds flow to backward production capacity is tantamount to seeking fish from the edge of the tree.
However, while carrying out long-term structural adjustment, we can also take into account the short-term goal of hedging the downward pressure on the economy.
How? The main line of supply-side structural reform runs through the whole process of macro-control, and the rhythm and intensity of countercyclical adjustment are well grasped and will not be pushed too hard. It is necessary to guide enterprises to make efforts at the junction of supply upgrading and expanding demand. Only in this way can we achieve the organic combination of temporary solution and permanent solution, immediate and long-term
China has made some achievements in this field before. 20 15 to 2065438 to 20 17 to 20 17 to 20 18 implemented the "eight-character policy". According to the changes in the situation, the central government has constantly adjusted the focus of the supply-side structural reform policy and enriched its connotation, which has played a substantial role in promoting economic rebalancing, improving operational quality and promoting risk convergence.
two
After talking about the long-term development ideas, let's look at the important task at the moment-"steady growth". Achieving steady growth is inseparable from countercyclical regulation, and an important part of countercyclical regulation is monetary policy.
In the press release of this year's Central Economic Work Conference, monetary policy has an eye-catching expression-"flexibility and moderation". Many people clap their thighs: this is just to relax, and the central bank is going to open the floodgates!
Is that really the case?
Before answering whether to "release water", there is a more important question: what should a good monetary policy achieve? A: Maintain monetary stability and promote economic development. How can we achieve the above goals? The monetary growth rate should basically match the economic growth rate.
At present, China's GDP growth rate is around 6%, and according to the calculation of many institutions, the potential growth rate of China's economy is expected to be below 6% during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, because the technical level is closer to the forefront, the working-age population is reduced, and the marginal return on capital is constrained.
The growth rate of broad money (M2) in China is about 8%, and it is about 2%-3% when inflation is excluded. The two are basically matched, and the growth rate of monetary funds can support the needs of economic development. In this case, there is really no need to further significantly loosen the currency.
In addition, a very direct way to evaluate whether the money supply is balanced is to see whether the interest rate level is balanced and desirable.
What is the interest rate? So is the price of the fund. How to judge whether the interest rate level is balanced? Look at the spread and price trend.
To this end, we might as well choose three groups of interest rate indicators, namely, overnight bank lending rate, 1 year and 5-year treasury bond interest rates, and loan preferential interest rate (LPR) corresponding to treasury bond interest rates.
What is the essence of these three? The overnight lending rate reflects the short-term financing cost of financial institutions; The interest rate of national debt is the risk-free interest rate endorsed by national credit; The best loan interest rate is the interest rate formed by various market entities, which has the characteristics of marketization.
How are these indicators in China? At present, the overnight lending rate in China interbank market is about 2.3%, the risk-free yields of 65,438+0-year bonds and 5-year bonds are about 2.6% and 3% respectively, and the best lending rate (LPR) of the corresponding term of bond interest rate is 4.65,438+05% and 4.8% respectively, with a difference of less than 2 percentage points.
I can't seem to see anything, so I need to find a reference. Take the United States, which has not completely withdrawn from quantitative easing in essence and its credit situation is relatively loose, for example, its target range of federal funds interest rate is currently 1.5- 1.75%, the interest rates of 1 year and 5-year government bonds are about 1.6%, and the interest rate of preferential loans in the United States is about 4.75%. The corresponding difference between the last two groups of data has exceeded 3 percentage points.
It is worth noting that China's current potential economic growth rate is almost three times that of the United States, and the price increase is also roughly the same. The risk-free interest rate in China is slightly higher and the risk premium is slightly lower. The comparison between the two shows that China's current interest rate level is in a relatively balanced and desirable range.
In this case, "stability" is the most ideal method. However, "stability" is not static. In order to maintain the corresponding stability, it is also necessary to make flexible and timely adjustments when the economic situation fluctuates, but this does not mean that monetary policy should be adjusted loosely.
Speaking of which, have you grasped the true meaning of "flexibility and moderation"?
three
"It is necessary to keep the macro leverage ratio basically stable," someone explained. "This means that deleveraging cannot be' one size fits all'. The central government can increase leverage, but local governments should increase leverage, individuals should increase leverage, and enterprises should increase leverage, so the overall situation is stable." Can this sentence really be understood like this?
Obviously not. Look at the overall situation, look at the general trend, and don't make subjective assumptions.
What is the overall situation? It is the overall situation of ensuring the building of a well-off society in an all-round way and the successful completion of the 13 th Five-Year Plan. What is the general trend? China's economic stability and long-term improvement is the general trend.
In the overall situation and general trend, steady growth is of course an important task of economic development; But building a good firewall and preventing and resolving major risks are the bottom line tasks.
Only by preventing and resolving major risks and firmly holding the bottom line that systemic risks do not occur can we ensure that the results are not swallowed up by risks.
In the past few years, the decision-makers have made a lot of efforts. From the "deleveraging" in 20 15 to the tough battle to prevent and resolve major risks in 20 17, and then to the "structural deleveraging" in 20 18, risks such as shadow banking, financial predators, local hidden debts and some small and medium-sized financial institutions have been effectively controlled, and the rapid rise of macro leverage has also been effectively curbed.
The data shows that by the end of the third quarter of this year, China's macro leverage ratio was 256.8%, up by 4. 1 percentage point compared with the same period of last year. In the first five years, the macro leverage ratio increased by 14.9%, 20.2%, 2 1. 1%, 7.2% and-1.5% respectively.
If we consider the financing activities without systematic statistics such as equity pledge and P2P, the broader macro leverage ratio has actually stabilized in the past two years, which has reserved policy space for subsequent risk resolution.
The above fully shows that the past policies are effective and can stand the test of practice. But we can't take it lightly. Risks and contradictions accumulated in the early stage may continue to be exposed, and the results of risk prevention need to be consolidated.
What should I do at this time? Bottom line: keep the macro leverage ratio basically stable and prevent large-scale leverage increase.
How to do it specifically? First, in view of the visible risks such as small and medium-sized financial institutions, some urban investment platform debts and real estate debt risks, it is necessary to compact the responsibilities, classify and dispose of them, and accurately dismantle the bombs; Second, for unpredictable risks, we should take the initiative to attack, make plans early, and deal with small probability events with high probability thinking.
four
The previous content is still quite hard-core You may be a little tired when you see this, but you will have a great resonance with the following content, because we are talking about real estate. So, will the property market be loosened?
At the annual Central Economic Work Conference, the expression of the property market is a hot spot of market concern, and this year it has reached a high point.
What did this year's meeting say? The words are very brief, reiterating that "the house is not speculation", but also emphasizing the need to "fully implement the long-term management and regulation mechanism to stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market".
Seeing these statements, analysts put forward a "soul point": since the meeting said that it is necessary to "fully implement the policy of the city", then all localities should combine their own conditions, whether tight or loose, and do not hesitate to come up with good ideas.
As for "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations", it is the clear attitude of the central government to local governments-housing prices can't fall any more, they should be stable, and they can rise moderately, but they can't rise sharply. In this way, the opportunity for the property market to rebound came.
Is that really the case?
Uncle Island wants to give the above-mentioned "analyst" four words: I think too much. In fact, the problem of housing price trend and real estate regulation and control policy does not need to be guessed between the lines, but only needs to return to common sense to get the answer.
Think about it. What is this house for? In the final analysis, it is used for living. Or meet the just-needed housing demand and realize the dream of home ownership; Or meet the demand for improved housing that wants to live in a new house.
However, we also have to admit that the property of a house is not only residence, but also investment and financial properties, and investment and speculation in the real estate market are triggered by the latter two properties.
However, if the investment demand and speculative demand are too large and the real estate price rises too fast, people will regard the real estate market not as a consumer market, but as a speculative tool.
Since then, the funds of the whole society will scramble for high returns in a short time, but it will force other industries and even high-tech industries representing advanced productive forces to be in a state of capital hunger, which will limit the iterative development of the industry.
For individuals, all the needs of pension, education, medical care, entertainment and tourism have to make way for buying a house. Only by squeezing six wallets can you afford a suite. What can we do if we don't tighten our belts? If the real estate develops to this point, it will be too beside the point.
So the downward pressure of economic development will loosen the real estate? Absolutely not. If the short-term growth figures look good, it is easy to relax the regulation of real estate, which not only leads to a further increase in macro leverage, but also is not conducive to the improvement of people's livelihood and innovation and upgrading.
More importantly, after the rapid development of the real estate industry, if there is a large surplus again, the digestion cycle of the backlog of problems and contradictions will only be longer and more difficult. Drinking poison to quench thirst is by no means a good prescription.
So does the real estate market need to develop? How to develop? At this point, the Central Economic Work Conference gave a clear answer-adhere to long-term management and regulation to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
How to do it specifically? For example, we will increase the housing security for people in urban difficulties, strengthen urban renewal and renovation of existing housing, do a good job in the renovation of old urban communities, and strengthen the construction of rental housing.
China's urban housing stock has reached more than 30 billion square meters, and the per capita housing construction area has reached 39 square meters. The rapid development stage of China's real estate industry has basically ended, and the main contradiction in the real estate market has changed from insufficient aggregate to insufficient structural supply and relatively low quality.
There are about 6 billion square meters of old urban communities in China, and there are problems such as aging municipal infrastructure and lack of public services. Transforming these old communities and improving the surrounding facilities can directly or indirectly stimulate investment of more than 20 trillion yuan.
In addition, about 70% of the more than 200 million new citizens in China live in rented houses, and a large number of migrant workers live in "villages in cities" with poor conditions. The direct and indirect investment in rental housing construction in the next 10 year will also reach more than 20 trillion yuan.
It can be said that the urban renewal of China is in urgent need and has great potential. It is not only a major livelihood project, but also a major development project, which can stimulate effective investment demand.
In the past three years, the effectiveness of real estate regulation and control is obvious to all. With the establishment and implementation of the long-term management and regulation mechanism of real estate, the real estate market is expected to undergo great changes, the increase of real estate prices will gradually converge, the growth rate of real estate investment will be generally stable, and the problem of high real estate inventory will be obviously alleviated. Achievements are hard-won, and we need to cherish them even more.