Xu Wenming: Thank you. Every time I come to Beijing, I am warmly received by so many friends. I am also very happy to come to Beijing. I remember my first visit to Beijing was in July last year 13. At that time, Qian Zhi Club contacted me. Why did I choose July 13? I gave you a present. Today is Mother's Day. I wish all mothers in the world happiness. So I often choose special festivals and peaceful days to come to Beijing. This is my wish. I hope everyone will have a happy three hours today. Thank you.
Since I arrived in Beijing last year, I told you that the market might start. My happiest thing is that every time I come to Beijing, everyone tells me after listening to my report that someone will not lose money on the way down, because he has accepted the thinking of short-term operation, so he must beat this market with short-term. Of course, if you value this mid-line trend, the stocks you hold must also be at the bottom, and you will feel very happy to do the band in the middle, because the stock market is making money and no one wants to lose money, so we must be like just now. Earn! Earn!
I hope that if there is no futures index in China stock market, the stock market will only rise and not fall. After the stock index futures come out, our first sentence will change and the last three words will change, so I still don't want it to come out. Many people want it to come out. I think many people will know that stock index futures is a double-edged sword, which is difficult to grasp. Before the stock index futures came out, everyone still seriously studied short-term technology and speculated on stocks.
(PPT) On this day last year, I came to Beijing, and in September 2008 19, I said it would fall further. At that time, the weekly line was green, and I dared to be bearish. But in June 1 1, the weekly line turned red, and I dared to do more. At that time, I told you that you regarded it as a bull market, because if you think that stepping on 250 antennas is a bull market, then the market will start to fluctuate, so I will give you a lot of 250 antennas first. What's your age? I'm not happy to look at the years. The number of years broke through here and rose to 1600 points, and 800 points rose to 2400 points. From here on, I believe that many stocks have not reached new heights. Many people know that any breakthrough has a process of withdrawal confirmation, so when I broke through here, I said to everyone, "Don't worry, there is always a process of withdrawal confirmation." Here I will return to withdrawal confirmation.
(PPT) The market in Shenzhen is stronger than that in Shanghai. Shenzhen 250 antenna broke through here, and it was also confirmed. So I always say that the stock market will never be empty. As long as this market avoids chasing up and down, it is a small step to success. So this market has been rising from the bottom to the present, and we have always said that the callback is your buying opportunity. Don't catch up, don't kill, just do it. Although the plunge is painful, the bull market usually only takes 1 day to 2 days. The better stocks, when they fell on the first day, were all muddy and there was no way to stop them. The next day, they parted ways. So I have been encouraging you to read books from foreigners, not books from messy people, but books from smart people. They have a saying on Wall Street that if you hold back when the local market plummets one day, you can see what gold is the next day, but gold will shine one day. We usually watch it on the first day of the crash, unless you kill it today, buy it at the first time, buy it at the lowest closing price, and go your separate ways the next day. So is the bear market. On the first day of the rebound, it will definitely go up. On the first day of the bear market rebound, it will rise. The next day, we will go our separate ways. Good stocks will go up and bad stocks will go down. So today I will teach you how to operate in the short term and how to distinguish between good stocks and bad stocks. Yesterday, I talked about how to choose stocks. Today, I talked about the simplest stock selection method.
(PPT) Shenzhen broke through 250 antennas here, and then the stock market will never be empty. How to operate now? Now the trend is upward. I said I hit antenna 250, and I want you to start from here. On June 5438+ 10, when I came, I said that making stocks depends on the golden fork. What is a golden fork? 5 antenna and 10 antenna form a golden cross, upward. 65438+June 9, I said I wanted to see the Golden Fork again next week. If the weekly line forms a golden cross, then the mid-line market begins. The daily line is short and the weekly line is middle. After the mid-line market starts, you can hold shares in the middle line. Therefore, I have been writing an article these two days, saying, "Calling you out in the short term does not mean that the median line will not rise. Just because you leave today doesn't mean you won't come back in two days. " Because many people have reversed my concept and taken it out of context, saying that it will fall today and rise tomorrow. Nowadays, more people say that they have been told many times along the way, but in the end they have risen so high. So I finally came to the conclusion that the score of 6 124 fell to 1664, and I came to the conclusion why I was unpopular. Because 6 124 points fell, I grasped every rebound and every rebound was above 20%. Those who performed poorly earned 53%, and those who performed well doubled. If the short-term rebound goes in, the top will not come out, and then it will go to a lower position. He feels terrible. I have been writing articles closely recently. First of all, I confirmed with you that the mid-line market has started, so three books have been published. Why is the fourth book published? Just to illustrate my point, the bull market in China has already started. Every time I ask someone to avoid it here, I always say. Some people say that xu teacher reached its peak here, and now it has reached such a high level. I can tell you the bull market forecast in China with the fourth book. At that time, I said that this was the bottom, 6 124 was not the top, and I was going to have an abortion. I said this sentence in July 13, and I told you not to be pessimistic. From now on, I will do stocks seriously, and 6 124 is not the top. Of course, it doesn't rule out that the lyrics of my fan group can still be used. If the stock index futures come out, I'm not sure, because the rising things must be piled up with money, and the people trapped at the top can just do it. Stock index futures can make money, and you can lose money here. So some people say that it is best to provide stock index futures here. If the stock index futures are quoted at 1000, it will arrive and the stock index futures will also come down at a high point. You can make money if you go up. If you do it together, the stock will also rise, and everyone who enters the futures will lose money.
(PPT) Why do I look so low? 3 160, the country does not talk about size, size is not up. During the bull market, the scale of ICBC did not go up. Do you want to know who benefits from size? What our country has done in this wave of market is right and not wrong. If it rises to 65438+100000 points, the wealth of many private entrepreneurs will be preserved, and they must be reduced to let their small businesses flow. The next step concerns the interests of the country, which is more important than anything else. Everyone must remember that stock trading should follow the party and listen to the party. At 1664, SASAC indicated that the size would not be sold. Why did you go up at 998? Many people don't believe in reform, so they should not only reform, but also let the state-owned assets appreciate. The problem now is to live and die with the country. You can't leave until the country is gone, and you can't leave until the country is gone. Why do I dare say that? As we all know, the bull market rose by 2245 points in 2000, which is the circulation of legal person shares. At that time, many people made a fortune here. At that time, many countries bought rights issues at the highest point, and I always believed that our big problems would reach the highest point. When Dafa starts to reduce its holdings, you should be on your guard. Now that Xiao Fei is listed, it has gone down and up. What I have seen recently is a rebound all the way, all the way. Has the size moved? Don't move. So this is the skill of watching the disk. Someone asked me why I dared to talk more in 1664. Is it technical? I mean technical, but I have never talked about fundamentals. At this time, the fundamentals have undergone fundamental changes, that is, they will stop if they can't sell, and Huijin will increase its holdings of several major stocks. (PPT) It is also very disciplined for ICBC to enter Huijin here. We should look at the essence of the stock market through phenomena. Huijin announced that it did not increase its holdings. If it announces that it will increase its holdings of multiple stocks, it will continue to suspend trading! If Huijin says it is illegal to increase its holdings, Huijin will go in ahead of time and finally announce it. It is illegal to go in front, but it is appropriate to go in behind. By the end of the year, I wrote a sentence in my blog, "Huijin didn't make money." Judging from the annual report, Huijin did not make money. Many people say that Huijin must have made money, 10%. Will Huijin lose money when it enters the market? I said no loss, Huijin promised a one-year cycle, so one year is the end of this year. If the index falls at the end of this year and Huijin fails to increase its holdings, then nothing needs to be said. Speaking of the share reform of 6000 19 (Baosteel), in 2005, Baosteel announced that it would increase its holdings, and 4.5 yuan fell to 3.7 yuan. Everyone is very happy, and Baosteel is trapped. Finally, when it can be circulated. The share reform was announced on April 30, and then all the way to the daily limit. You should remember that the country makes a lot of money, and you can only play in it, but you should do the part of making money and don't always support national construction and enterprise construction.
Through this analysis, you should not be afraid of our market. The center line is strong, early adopters are strong, and the short-term price difference depends on ability. If you don't have the ability, hold on to the stock. But you broke a law, and all the securities companies closed down. You have to think about so many people and so many securities practitioners. In the middle line, you buy bonds from 70 yuan, and 30 yuan will rise in five years.
Long-term market, people who listen to my class today, even if I am short-term bearish in the future, does not mean that I am short-term bearish. I'm sure I can't reach 3000 points this year. On February 6th last year, I confronted several bloggers, four of whom were short-selling. I said I fell 400 points, and the result was from 2400 points to 2037 points. When 9. 18 came, my advertising slogan was to give you an offer of 400 points. It rose by 200 points the day before I came. I said there are 200 points left. I'll call at 200 and give you an offer of 400 points. 65438+February10,2000 points, I said there are still 400 points, reaching more than 2400 points. After the fight, on February 20th, I said it was down by 400 points, but it was down by 400 points.
What now? It fell 400 points from the highest point this month, all based on. (PPT) Look at the monthly line and go to the May line. A move to the May line means a bullish trend. At 998 o'clock, I went to the May Line to walk cattle, and here I broke the May Line to walk bears. It's a bull market now. What kind of bull market is this? The most stable third wave has begun, and the increase of the third wave is at least the same as here. Is 6 124 the first point? It won't be the head. I said last year that 6 124 is not the first time, but I won't tell you when to have an abortion. I just don't like talking about time periods, and it's boring to talk about time periods. Tell you that you had a miscarriage at the end of this year on 6 124. What if it is 6 123? All my predictions over the past year have been wrong. But when I predicted that 6 124 would be knocked out in this place, a harbor wave expert said that it could knock out 23,000 points, 25 years or 45 years, which means that most people here can't see it, and younger people can see that Shanghai we are talking about is lower than here. Old people and old ladies did all the stock trading in Shanghai. I traveled all over the country just because there were so many people your age. Shanghai is just making small money.
Now we must keep a firm eye on the long term. I have always said that falling to the May line is the best buying point. I didn't touch the May Line last month, and I haven't touched the May Line now. It was 2300 last month and 2400 this month. Suppose it rises to 2700 points or even 3000 points, then don't do it this year. Not for three months. I fell hard.
PPT)KDJ indicator, why am I bearish on February 29, 2008? Because KDJ is 35 years old, you must reach a negative number to go. All cycles are the same. Reading requires brains. All technologies can set all cycles. All heads can be turned into bottoms, and all bottoms can be turned into heads. This is the characteristic of my four books. I don't like to write thick, I write little but fine. Here, I see it is negative, but when it turns negative, it still refuses to rise. The first negative rebound, it fell again in May, and then it rebounded again. On this day, it deviated. On September 26, 2008, the state issued a policy. Why not go up? Can't get on, ADX indicator is 4000 points, from 1800 to 4600 points, which is very high. We have to wait until KDJ deviates, the stock price hits a new low and starts to rise. This circle has fallen. Here I say that the market has started, because the stock price has set foot on the May line, so we wait for the next red idea to come out, and the bull market has begun. At that time, I'm sure you read blogs. Many people say that the bull market has started. I said it started in June 5438 +2008 10. They are two months behind me. Now let me talk about the overall trend of the market. No matter how high it rises here, the current KDJ is 108, so I don't want the market to fall this month. If the market falls this month, the loss will not be great. In my line of work, I always tell you that I hope you can rely on it. After you depend on it, you will make up the money at home, and there will be more money. If we just kill this place, it won't work. You must fight it, it will make people crazy. As soon as you come in, the lethality is terrible. The market of 5.30 is fierce, and the country has suffered great negative benefits. Stamp duty has tripled from 1 to 3. At that time, three or four stocks fell, and many people said they would never do stocks again, but there was no chance to do them. Many stocks peaked at 5.30, and they will be index stocks from now on. When new investors see that the index is rising, why am I so incompetent and the stock is not rising? Just take the money and buy it again. The more you buy, the more sets you get.
In the past two days, many stocks have not reached a new high, and they are right. Coal stocks rose, bank stocks rose, and China CITIC Bank also rose. We don't need to look at poor banks and good banks. Minsheng Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank are both good. Recently, Xingye, Xingye and Pudong are doing well, and so are Bank of Beijing and Bank of Ningbo. If you are from Shenzhen, you should speculate in stocks with price comparison effect. What is arbitrage? Shenzhen B shares are very close to the stock price, so there will be a price comparison effect. If you speculate in H shares, please go to Hong Kong to buy them. It will go up one day, and the same stock is priced at the same price, with a dime. Why should I buy China Ping An? Because China Ping An's share price is still lower than that of Hong Kong stocks, this is the price comparison effect.
(PPT) If the closing index at the end of the month reaches 100 or above, then I advise you to travel next month. Except for one case, it has gone up this month and will go up next month. To tell the simplest truth, (PPT) China is safe. On June 23rd, 2009, it was 87, and here it is 88. I hope you can go back to the five-week line and lower the j of KDJ a little, and KDJ will become 102. If you fly again, you will be recalled. This is also the reason why I came here on February 20th to attend the 8th Sina Awards Conference, based on the fact that Ping An will fall. I said that the market will fall to the weekly moving average 10, that is, KDJ has reached 100 or above. Let's assume that the market will take off this month and return next month. The higher the rise, the lower the return. China safely rose to 35 yuan, and the May Line in 32 yuan became two days. Some people don't follow the May line and the 5-week line. After coming back, hope came again. KDJ reaches 10 1, which is too far from the 5-week line to catch up.
At noon on Monday, I said that there was still room for growth in the market, because I said that the market would break through. Why should I break through it? It's actually very bad. Only a breakthrough will fall, and no breakthrough will not fall. Will only pursue breakthroughs. A breakthrough became 107. Recently, I gave a lecture outside, and many people didn't understand technology, so I said the simplest. The simplest things in the bull market can also make money. For example, I gave a lecture on TV yesterday. I said the simplest thing. After I spoke, I asked a few people who didn't understand technology. They can understand and make money. The stock price closed at 2033, still 60 points short, and it can still fall. I wrote an article that night. There was a risk after the breakthrough, and I dropped it. After the risk came out, I said, "China, today's decline is conducive to Friday's rise, so some people don't understand. I hope everyone here will understand my short-term thinking. If someone doesn't understand, you can take a nap when I talk about the short term, listen carefully when I talk about the middle line, and move when I talk about the long term. "
(PPT) Here, I said it will go up the day after tomorrow. KDJ is bent down, rising above 100, and can fall again. People who do short-term jobs are happiest when they fall. If they fall down, they can buy and count money. It's just that if it falls here, we'll buy it, and the weekly line will rise on Friday. If it goes up, the weekly line will go up. Everyone knows next week. It's best to leave it alone for the first ten days and collect it on the last day. What should we do next week? Go out when you are high, don't feel bad after you get out, and wait until it comes back. Believe it or not, call back next month. Once the callback, this is the initial stage of the bull market. How did it come back? (PPT) Walk back and forth horizontally. This is the May Line that just broke through. Immediately start sideways. Here, go to the May Line and go back for a month. If the reunification is not violent, take two months to go back, June to go back, July to go back, and don't go up too much in August and September, but go up in September and June, 10 to welcome the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. Look at the long term and do what I just said in the short term.
(PPT) If you want to avoid the top of 100, rush up and fall down, just buy it when you touch the May line, and don't touch the May line when you fall down. Delaying the decline for one month is more beneficial to the rise in September. Just now, I talked about a general idea. State-owned assets should be spent at a high level, and they should be used up before they are big. Last year165438+1October 65438+February, many state-owned enterprises increased their holdings of state-owned enterprises, and their money had to be thrown to the top for at least one year. The performance of these enterprises should be within their own enterprises, and the year-end performance can be imagined. I can't see it yet. I can give it to you when I see the 1 quarterly report. Now 1 quarterly report comes out and there is a further investment plan. Later, it disappeared. Everyone says that their own enterprises have clearly told you that the performance of many enterprises has not increased, but the performance of many central enterprises has increased from the previous month. The first quarter of this year is higher than last year, but the overall level is declining, but many enterprises are not central enterprises. There is no further investment plan now, which is a question mark. Can their performance be reflected? We look at the interim report and the quarterly report. I believe it will be all right in the third quarterly report, because our economy has bottomed out before the real economy. If the real economy has bottomed out at that time and everyone rises together, then what should this market look at? If the world stock market wants to see oil, why should it look at oil? Oil has risen from more than 30 yuan to more than 50 yuan now, but the China stock market has to look at real estate, not cars. It's no use buying more cars. Big companies have absorbed all the profits. Once the real estate stabilizes and rebounds, it will boost many economies. It will be fine when the real estate starts to rise. The rise of real estate is bound to be accompanied by the improvement of bank performance. People who want to be long-term investors should honestly buy bank stocks or simply buy real estate stocks. Of course, real estate stocks also have requirements. You are not allowed to buy real estate in Anhui and Tibet, but only in large and medium-sized cities. When I arrived in Beijing, I also said, has Beijing's real estate fallen? It didn't fall, just a small correction, which was dwarfed by the stock market. Our houses in Shanghai have gone up and down, and those that don't go up don't go down. So in real estate, you pay attention to Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangdong and Shanghai. Of course, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are still good. I advise you not to pay attention to places like Anhui. It's not interesting. There's no profit in selling the house. If you make long-term investments, you should pay attention to buying stocks that will rise next year. The economy is bound to recover next year and these stocks will rise. I even told many friends, what if I can't do stocks? Buy coal, as long as the coal goes up, but don't buy coal in H shares, unless your H shares are higher than my A shares, or H shares and A shares go up together. Coal stocks are also related to the national economy and people's livelihood. This thing is always good. Last year, we talked about medicine, and in June 5438+065438+ 10, we talked about agriculture, but we didn't talk about pesticides. At that time, I thought pesticides were on sale. If the agricultural sector is going up, the price of the farm to be sold will increase, which will improve the performance. At that time, we talked about the Great Northern Wilderness, and the grain was rising, but it was expected that. In the short term, pharmaceutical companies should avoid market analysis. Retired workers in our country have medical insurance. Some people think that prices will go down and performance will decline, but this is not the case. Why choose coal stocks? After a few years, all the small coal mines were closed, all of them were large coal mines, and the output increased. With the increase of coal production cost, the profit space is increasing. Therefore, we should use this idea to select stocks. It is definitely good for coal stocks to have shares. I didn't choose all the coal stocks here, and there are not many coal stocks sent this year. Pingzhuang Energy gives shares, and the open-pit coal industry gives shares. This is the idea of our stock selection. At that time, I came to tell you in June 165438+ that people who don't know technology will buy small and medium-sized boards, and they will make money if they buy them indiscriminately. Small and medium-sized board is a private enterprise, so it will continue to give shares. At that time, I said that the small and medium-sized board was the best. Now that the market has reached this level, how to choose stocks? You must choose several concepts. The biggest choice for a bull market is to send shares. For coal stocks like this, we must choose those that have the potential to send shares. Why is the potential of stock issuance good? In case our marketing department goes up, the stocks that have the potential to send shares will also go up, at least better than those that don't, and have strong resilience.
Shanghai stocks have risen well recently. If you simply fry Lujiazui, there is nothing but renting a house. If you want to do venture capital and Shanghai, you should do public utilities, Shanghai Hi-Tech. This is a dual concept, Yuyuan Mall. Therefore, the idea of stock selection must be broadened. Speculation on pharmaceutical stocks two days ago will lead to differentiation the next day, so we must pay attention to stock selection. Choose the right stocks in the bull market and make a lot of money. There is a stock in these two days, Dayang Chuangshi 600233(PPT). To be a stock, you must make multiple concepts, and slowly rise, which is also a clothing concept. To be a stock, you must do several concepts well. I am happier than anything when I meet this kind of slow bull stock in the bull market. What's the use of calling back for a few days without pursuing a daily limit? Can't a stock pursue the most stable income slowly and leisurely? We like stocks that go up slowly, and we'd better not fall. (PPT)600523, a completely unknown stock, didn't move after buying it, but at least it didn't lose money. Finally, it rose from 13 to 16, an increase of 20%. So you must determine what you are doing in the market. You're here to make money. It's very important to do things honestly according to market rules. Never chase after the rise. If you chase after the rise, I will teach you to learn from the Ningbo Death Squad. Chase up today, go out tomorrow and lose money. Later, I calculated that if I don't lose money, I will have a daily limit today and there will be a rising process tomorrow. Don't be greedy when rushing, just a little.
So I talked a lot just now, and we must choose multiple concepts in stock selection. For example, we must choose the stocks of small and medium-sized board recently: First, the performance should grow positively. Second, it is best to have the potential to send shares; Third, the plate should not be too big. If you choose a small and medium-sized board, you'd better hit a hot spot. When a hot spot erupts in an all-round way, your mind must be clear. Real estate stocks rose very well yesterday and will be divided on Monday. Real estate also rose a lot yesterday. If you choose a stock that belongs to an economically developed region, and its performance is not bad, then you will part ways with other stocks, so the stock selection must be based on performance. Last time I went to a lecture of Qian Zhi Club, the host asked me to talk about this field. At that time, I was talking about the communication sector, and I was talking about the power equipment sector of Shenzhen SME board. The power equipment plate of Shenzhen small and medium-sized board used to be a stock-Shenzhen Huicheng. As a result, it started with me, and it started badly on February 20th. At that time, I saw that it had been sent once before, and the performance was improved by 30%. When a bear market occurs, it will inevitably be given a chance to go out. Send shares again, and send them again if you can't go out. So last time I went to give a lecture, I couldn't recommend stocks. I can only say that the performance of the sector, that is, the communication sector, is predicted to increase in the first quarter, and a stock will close in one week. If you look at the blogs of tea fans, they list a lot of stocks.
(PPT) In March, there were two negative lines, 80%. I think the annual report hasn't come out yet, and there is a notice in the first quarterly report. My stock had better come out in a quarterly report, and it will go up later. Now that the first quarterly report has come out, we see that the performance of the second quarterly report is growing again. We still don't do it, but we do it again and again. Therefore, stock selection should use unique thinking to choose. Others say that a stock doesn't care much about sending shares once, let alone sending shares twice. In the history of Qingdao Haier, the bear market has also filled 20% of the rights every year, and the market's pursuit of 20% is also very good. Baiyi Pharmaceutical, which I chose in the past, was given shares twice, and I am willing to give shares in history, and I will be willing to give them now. A broke stock in history will never be pulled out, so the idea of stock selection is very important.
I told you about the fundamentals and the trend of the market an hour ago. The last hour is the most important content today, that is, the technical content. During the break, you can copy some technical things:
A fresh upgrade of stock trading (that is, cheetah attack)
On the basis of "rocket launch" and "aerial bomb", when encountering "long and short struggle", the relative bottom and top of the stock are judged by "one move in stock trading".
Tip: After the ADX value is above 50, begin to observe the CCI index. Only when there is deviation, leave the next day when the innovation is low or high.