New Oriental evaporated 50 billion overnight, and I cried. But this is really just the beginning.

The boots of extracurricular training policy have finally landed. On July 24, the "double reduction" document of off-campus teaching and training and online education industry officially landed. Parents' anxiety finally settled down, but extracurricular education and training institutions could not sit still.

Different from the previous low-key and calm education policy, this policy was broadcast or released by the state through news broadcast, People's Daily, Xinhua News Agency and other national mainstream media. It can be said that the level is high and the matter is important, which is unprecedented.

The introduction of this "double reduction" policy can be described as an atomic bomb, which instantly exploded the pot, causing hundreds of billions of educational stocks and training industries to evaporate instantly, of which the market value of three educational institutions, Good Future, Gaotu Group and New Oriental, evaporated by 65.438+0092 billion overnight.

As a leader in the industry, New Oriental once plunged 50%, the biggest drop in a single day in history. By the afternoon of July 26th, the closing price of New Oriental was HK$ 16.00, a drop of over 47%, and the total market value evaporated by nearly HK$ 50 billion in a single day.

The A-share market plummeted, which made retail investors and institutions blindsided. The education and training industry is almost "completely annihilated", which affects the entire ecological chain.

The introduction of the "double reduction" policy is a fatal blow to New Oriental. Among them, the document stipulates that "existing discipline training institutions are uniformly registered as non-profit institutions, and off-campus training institutions shall not occupy national statutory holidays, rest days and winter and summer vacations to organize discipline training, shall not provide' search by topic', shall not approve new discipline training institutions, and shall not go public for financing", which is a fatal move.

It is said that at an internal meeting of New Oriental recently, someone proposed to transform it into a nursery, but I couldn't help crying. New Oriental executives also said: "Now the scope of the education industry is not only as simple as K 12 education, but also adult education, such as postgraduate entrance examination and study abroad, which will be affected.

There is a joke on the internet that children don't have to make up lessons, and the lessons have collapsed. If you don't make up lessons, your eyes will get better and your ophthalmology will collapse. Mom doesn't have to send her children to make up lessons on weekends, and she doesn't have time for beauty treatment, so medical beauty also collapses. The children didn't send the remedial class, and the father didn't have time to go out for a drink, so the liquor collapsed. ...

As the benchmark of education and training industry, New Oriental has always been a myth in the industry. Yu, the founder of the company, is also regarded by the public as a model of "diaosi counterattack". Teacher Yu has given many lectures and published many inspirational books. His classic quotations have brought a lot of confidence and hope to many confused universities.

In recent years, education and training (especially K 12) has been the object of capital pursuit, especially online education. According to relevant data, the total financing of online education industry in 2020 will exceed 50 billion yuan, exceeding the total financing in 20 16-20 19 years. Players with online K 12 are the most blessed. The total financing amount of Ape Tutoring and homework help is as high as 380 1 100 million yuan, accounting for 70% of the total annual amount.

Unicorns seeking to go public have reached the threshold of life and death, and their capital has to be put down. Behind this, the most sad thing is that investors who flocked in before watched hundreds of billions of funds trapped in the education and training market.

Ma Yun said that education will always exist, but New Oriental does not necessarily exist. In a word, our crying seems to be expected, just the difference between coming early and coming late. I don't doubt that teacher Yu's tears are sincere, but I can see that his tears are mixed.

The introduction of the policy seems to make Mr. Yu look sad, but I think Mr. Yu should thank China for his education. Mr Yu found several educational outlets in China. In the eighties and nineties of last century, when going abroad was hot, Mr. Yu founded New Oriental, doing English training in IELTS and TOEFL, which made a lot of money. As he himself said, put children in sacks and then step on the tuyere of K 12 education.

Capital is bloodthirsty. The exam-oriented education in China makes parents and children tired like dogs, which is simply unbearable. Then why do so many people choose extracurricular training?

This is the best explanation I have ever seen: "Everyone watched the movie together and sat well, but those in the front row stood up and watched, and those in the back row stood up and watched. Finally, everyone stood up and watched the movie. The movie is still that movie, but everyone is standing and watching! In the end, everyone is particularly uncomfortable! "

Due to the psychological and economic burden brought by children's education, more and more young people choose not to have children or have fewer children, which leads to the serious problem of declining birthrate and aging.

In order to cope with the severe problem of declining birthrate and aging, in May this year, the state issued a birth policy of opening three children, but it does not mean that the policy allows people to have children. Now many young people don't even want to have a second child, and the country has also seen this problem. We should work hard on education, medical care and housing, with education bearing the brunt.

It is not difficult to see that the purpose of the "double reduction policy" introduced by the state this time is to encourage fertility and reverse the downward trend of the birth rate. Now the country will first rectify and improve the education industry, reduce the living costs of ordinary people, improve the educational environment, and really reduce the burden on ordinary people.

Spring river plumbing duck prophet. The change of national policy has been going on for a long time. In mid-June this year, with the approval of the Central Editorial Board, the Ministry of Education also announced the establishment of an off-campus education and training supervision department. This department, which has never been established, indicates that the era of teaching and training industry is completely over.

Subsequently, the market supervision department successively fined 15 well-known institutions, including ape counseling, learning and thinking, New Oriental, Zhangmen 1 and 1, totaling 36.5 million yuan.

A series of severe thunder measures pushed the teaching and training industry to the last moment. They are greeted by strict supervision!

At the same time, this year, Beijing implemented a random lottery allocation for admission, completely giving up the condition of giving priority to degree rooms. There are indications that the country is coming hard this time, and the "double-drop policy" introduced this time is only the beginning. I believe the medical system will follow suit in the next step.

This change in national policy is not only related to every family and individual, but also to the future development of every family. Temporary pain is for a better tomorrow. Let education return to its original intention, so as to develop healthily. Teacher Yu has achieved financial freedom. Teacher Yu, who is not short of money, should stop when he sees it, and timely transformation is the right way.

Text/Zeng