Forecast of epidemic situation development trend in COVID-19

The epidemic in COVID-19 takes several months as a cycle, and small-scale outbreaks occur alternately in each cycle.

novel coronavirus (COVID-19), referred to as "COVID-19", is named "219 Coronavirus Disease" by the World Health Organization, which refers to pneumonia caused by novel coronavirus infection in 219. Since December 219, some hospitals in Wuhan City, Hubei Province have discovered many cases of unexplained pneumonia with a history of exposure to the seafood market in South China, which were confirmed as acute respiratory infectious diseases caused by novel coronavirus infection in 219.

On February 11th, 22, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization, announced that novel coronavirus's pneumonia was named "COVID-19". On February 22nd, the National Health and Wellness Commission issued a notice that the English name of "novel coronavirus" was revised to "COVID-19". On March 11th, WHO thought that the current COVID-19 epidemic could be called a global pandemic. On April 4th, China held a national mourning activity.

On August 18th, National Health Commission revised and completed novel coronavirus's diagnosis and treatment plan (trial eighth edition). On September 3rd, the WHO expert group on COVID-19 epidemic response assessment * * * and the chairman announced the list of members of the expert group at the briefing of member countries, and Zhong Nanshan was selected.

Characteristics:

According to the existing case data, novel coronavirus is characterized by fever, dry cough and fatigue, and a few patients are accompanied by symptoms of upper respiratory tract and digestive tract such as nasal congestion, runny nose and diarrhea. Severe cases often have dyspnea after one week, and severe cases rapidly progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, septic shock, metabolic acidosis that is difficult to correct, bleeding and coagulation dysfunction and multiple organ failure.

It is worth noting that patients with severe or critical illness may have moderate to low fever or even no obvious fever. Mild patients only showed low fever, slight fatigue, etc., and no pneumonia. Judging from the cases admitted at present, most patients have recovered well, and a few patients are in critical condition. The elderly and those with chronic basic diseases have poor prognosis. The symptoms of children cases are relatively mild.