After the Dutch election, the biggest political risk in the euro zone now comes from the French election. The latest polls show that Macron, Le Pen and Melenchon are the strongest competitors. The first round of elections will be held on April 23rd. If none of the five candidates can get more than 50% of the votes, the first two candidates will be selected to participate in the second round of general election on May 7. Judging from the current poll results, Macron and Le Pen are most likely to enter the ultimate PK.
Le Pen declared the principle of "France first" at the beginning of the campaign, and wanted to get France back on track within five years. In terms of economic policy, Le Pen prefers economic patriotism to globalism. In order to revive French industry, Le Pen promoted the protection of domestic talents, restored the national currency and withdrew from the euro. In addition, she also advocated holding a referendum and negotiating with the EU to recover the four sovereign rights of currency, legislation, territory and economy. Le Pen's ideas run counter to those of the European Union. If Le Pen resolutely leaves the European Union after winning, French government bonds will be sold off, capital outflow, unemployment rate and inflation will rise sharply, and market risk aversion will rise sharply. The impact on the EU will be more serious than Britain's withdrawal from the EU.
Although Le Pen's campaign proposition is "Britain leaves the EU", it also has considerable uncertainty, at least in the next few months. The French Constitution clearly stipulates that France is a part of the European Union. To leave the European Union, we must first amend the constitution, which is not so easy. According to Article 89 of the Constitution, constitutional amendments must be proposed by the government, not by the President. Even if the government proposes to amend the constitution, it must be passed by both the National Assembly and the Senate, and then by a referendum or a majority vote of 60% in the National Assembly. If Le Pen wants to hold a vote, he must win a majority in the parliamentary elections in June. Not only that, the French people's current resistance to the EU is not very great, and Le Pen's road to Britain's withdrawal from the EU is very difficult.