On December 11th, 22, the "221 China Automobile Market Development Forecast Summit" hosted by China Automobile Industry Association was held in Beijing Automobile Museum. The summit was jointly organized by the Market and Trade Committee of China Automobile Industry Association and Automotive Media, and supported by China Automobile Strategic Development Research Center of Tianjin University and Beijing Automobile Museum. At the summit, Deputy Secretary-General china automobile dealers association? Luo Lei? He gave a speech on the theme of "Development Forecast of Used Car Market in 221". The following is a record of the live speech:
Deputy Secretary-General china automobile dealers association? Luo lei
Luo lei: it's almost evening, everyone. because it's been a long time, I want to finish the PPT as soon as possible.
Before I go here, I want to do a little research. Anyone here who has bought a used car raises his hand, less than 1%, and anyone who has sold it to a used car raises his hand. That's too much. All of them have changed cars. I ask you why you don't buy a used car, for fear of being cheated, right? At the invitation of the organizer, I would like to share with you the market operation. My report is divided into two parts. The first part is the market operation in 221, and the second part is the market forecast.
This year's macro-economic consumption is not quite the same as before. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, before last year, that is, in the first two years, automobile consumption dragged down the whole consumption, and the growth rate was lower than the consumption growth rate. This year is different. Most of the time, especially after the second quarter, automobile consumption just boosted the whole market consumption. Let's praise it.
Take a look at the second-hand car market. This is the latest statistical data. In the first 11 months of this year, the number of second-hand car transactions was 12.63 million, with a negative growth of 4.5%. The transaction amount was 777.9 billion yuan, which was basically the same as that of the same period last year. What's the problem? The value of the whole used car is increasing. 7.94 million passenger cars were traded in sub-models, down by 1.1%, and most of the declines were passenger cars and MPVs.
This data is generally consistent with automobile consumption. From the data point of view, I have divided it into three intervals, the first interval is the first quarter, the second interval is the second quarter, and the third interval is the third quarter, with -38.4%. What's the concept? In the first quarter, the volume of used cars decreased by 38.4%, and the reason is clear to everyone. In the second quarter, it decreased by 2.6%. Compared with the second quarter of last year, the volume of used cars in the second quarter was basically close to last year. It grew by 9.2% in the third quarter, and entered a stage of rapid growth in the third quarter. There is no suspense in the fourth quarter, and the growth rate must be above 1%.
this data is the manager index of used cars, the blue is last year, and the red is this year. Although there is an epidemic this year, the manager index has been higher than the same period last year since the second quarter, especially after entering August, the manager index is above the financial evaluation line, and it is close to the financial evaluation line in November. I didn't think it would be so good to communicate with car dealers in July. What's a good idea? Many cars are in short supply, especially high-end used cars. The cars sold in his shop last year can be recycled at the original price this year, which shows that the whole used car market has entered a more active stage since July this year.
This is the change of the average transaction price of used cars in recent years. From January to November this year, the average price was 61,58 yuan, which was a little lower than that of last year. Is this the right curve or the cause of the epidemic? Except for April, everything else remained a little more than 6, yuan. In addition, before January-June, it was a big ups and downs. Many people rushed to buy cars after the epidemic was just opened. At this time, the first wave of small peaks appeared. After the epidemic was completely over, the price was relatively stable after July, indicating that the whole market was in a relatively normal development stage.
as can be seen from the whole price range, this year's situation has changed compared with last year's. In the past, the number of cars below 3, yuan declined, but this year it has increased. The proportion of high-end cars or cars above 3, yuan or 15, yuan has declined. In the first half of the year, the problem of availability and transportation was solved, not because of the means of transportation.
Comparing the changes at all levels in 218 with this year, the total proportion of first-tier cities is declining, second-tier cities are declining, third-and fourth-tier cities are declining, and fifth-tier cities are rising. Most first-tier cities are subject to purchase restrictions, and buying used cars must have indicators. Especially recently, Beijing issued a new rule on lottery, and only one car can be sold under one person's name. Therefore, although used cars in first-tier cities are an export destination, the indicators are not updated.
in terms of market ranking of provinces and cities, Guangdong province is a big trading province, with 1.57 million vehicles traded in October, up 12% year-on-year, while other provinces and cities basically maintained negative growth.
Cross-regional situation: in the first 11 months of this year, there were 3.44 million vehicles transferred, accounting for 27.27%, and the situation is the same in every month, especially after September and October, the frequency of transfer will increase.
the flow direction of key areas, taking October as an example, is that the top five provinces are not talking about the transaction volume, but the top five provinces that transfer their nationality. First, Beijing, the bus first goes to Inner Mongolia, and second, Shandong. Who appears the most frequently here? Shandong is undoubtedly the largest importing province. Basically, except Sichuan, several other provinces have imported used cars to Shandong.
Looking at the forecast, the following factors are mainly considered in determining the market development direction. The first is objective factors, the second is market environment, and the third is policy factors. Let's first look at the number of cars owned by objective factors. Just now, Deputy Secretary-General Liu Yan said that China will soon become the largest car owner in the world. Yes, it will definitely. It may surpass the United States by the end of this year and will almost certainly surpass the United States next year. At present, there are 114 cities with more than 1 million vehicles in China. What is the concept? It shows that the density of car ownership is very high, and a considerable proportion of families have cars. There is no doubt that car consumption is realized through redemption.
This is the attitude of consumers. In just two years, this is a survey conducted by McKinsey. In 217, nearly 89% people did not consider buying a used car, while 11% people could buy a new car or a used car, which was vacillating. No one only considered buying a used car, and few people raised their hands to investigate buying a used car. By 219, the number of people considering buying both a new car and a used car has increased from 11% to 15%. What is more valuable is that 5% people only consider buying a used car. This is the change. If McKinsey does such research again, the proportion will increase in 22.
This chart has been used by many experts. This is when buying a new car. How many people are buying it for the first time, how many people are buying it for a change, and how many people are buying more? This change is very obvious. From no car to having a car, it was 87% in 29, and only 7.4% in exchange. By 219, only 51% were buying it without a car, and the exchange increased to 4%.
I especially disagree with what an expert said not long ago. What's his opinion? Do you agree that the development of used cars will affect the sales of new cars? What kind of car sales do I want to affect? The sales of unsold cars will affect the car itself, so used cars will replace it. There is no doubt that used cars are not cheap cars. Have you seen 1 million used cars? Have you seen 1 million used cars? I've seen them all, so used cars don't mean cheap cars, used cars don't mean old cars and broken cars, so it's a consumption attitude.
The policy environment has a great influence on the whole automobile market, so every expert talks about policies when analyzing the changes in the automobile market. For example, in 216, the policy of implementing value-added tax on small emissions below 1.6 will be implemented, and used cars are no exception. The major policy that affects the development of the second-hand car market is to say that the first one is that the second-hand car distribution enterprises will reduce the tax by .5%. This policy is very powerful. Why do you say this? In the past, the enterprise was a new car dealer and found that it could not do the second-hand car business. It wasn't that the boss didn't pay attention to it, and the boss couldn't do it either. Your store made 1 cars a year, with an average of 1 cars a month. You had to find 1 ID cards to carry the car. The 4S shop couldn't go to Gong Hu, so there were many risks. To solve this problem, I believe that most 4S shops will carry out the second-hand car retail business in 221. At present, I have kept in touch with these dealers.
two major policies, which are mentioned in the document issued by the State Council on July 21 to simplify the registration procedures for purchasing motor vehicles by used car dealers. What do you mean? In this sentence, I understand that the second-hand car registration system will change in the next step. In the past, it was often said that the problem of second-hand car commodity attributes has been solved, and I believe it will be solved in 221.
The second-hand car is restricted from moving. Why is there a 3% negative growth in Hebei Province? Apart from the epidemic, Hebei Province is also a country six because the epidemic has affected everyone's transaction frequency. If you can't get a car from Beijing or Tianjin, you can only get a country six, which is not enough for Beijing and Tianjin to digest. Therefore, it is found that the transaction volume will drop. Second-hand car relocation restrictions and industries are further promoted, especially broken, such as the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Pearl River Delta. We don't need to set up artificial lines. We want a dual-cycle system, and we want to reduce artificial obstacles to the cycle. Accommodation restrictions are artificial obstacles.
The second-hand car industry has entered the stage of restructuring and upgrading, which is the policy of restructuring. In the past, the structure was the structure of trading market plus small car dealers. The 4S shops did very little second-hand car business, accounting for a small proportion, and most of them were done by professional car dealers. There are still some problems here. Most of the car dealers are small in scale, and many of them are in the initial capital accumulation stage. Perhaps they put the pursuit of profits first and the brand second. Here, I ask you why you dare not buy them. Definitely, because the 4S store is guaranteed, do you dare to buy it from a dealer bigger than the 4S store? Definitely, because an old saying goes, the monk ran away from the temple, and these big stores are placed, and these enterprises will operate with branding.
the whole transformation and upgrading is accelerating, and the consumption upgrading is accelerating. It is not the past to build a fence and rent booths to make used cars, especially the second-hand cars guaranteed by the trading market.
There will still be car dealers. Many car dealers have changed from car dealers and scalpers to enterprises. The price of brand names and after-sales warranty must be the development direction. So, if the number of people increases, will it be more reassuring for everyone to buy and sell used cars, and will it speed up the frequency of changing cars? Just now, Director Bing Yang talked about the change cycle. If the environment of used cars is good, I believe that the change cycle of consumers will be accelerated because they are more at ease.
new car dealers will also vigorously promote the second-hand car business. I used several data. According to the data in the list of the top 1 dealers in 219, the graph on the left shows that second-hand cars account for 81% of the main business income, and second-hand cars account for 5.2%. The United States is more than 2%, and we are only 5.2%; Our main profit is 5.6%, and the United States is 1%. Judging from this situation, new car dealers go all out to do used car business substantially.
At the same time, we will see that as long as there is demand and market, there will be supply, and there are still many growth opportunities around the whole industrial chain of used cars, such as testing and certification services. There are many disputes and many cases of one loss and three losses in this area. Because the testing is self-testing, you can't produce evidence that you are not in good faith, and the court finds that you are subjectively and intentionally concealing, especially major accidents. If a third party tests, there will be no problem, because there will be a third party report to reduce such risks. What is vehicle information service? Why don't people dare to buy a second-hand car? Because you don't know the historical information of this car, have you been doing maintenance in a 4S shop, where have you been, how big the accident was, what you changed, and never knowing is a business opportunity.
Needless to say, supply chain finance used to be an individual's back account, and banks could not provide personal loans and running water funds. Commodity registration was done by enterprises, and banks could lend money just like new cars, but it was not possible. Centralized distribution and auction of used car sources are the future development trends.
next year will be a year of change, and our whole market will develop in a more transparent direction, which is a vision and a development direction. For OEMs, it is better to sell new cars. Why is it better to sell them? 4% demand satisfaction increment will be put up. For dealers of new cars and used cars, it is extremely troublesome to make buying and selling used cars easier. There are a lot of driving licenses for a car to come over. If it is simply registered, the whole market environment will be better for consumers, and consumers will feel more at ease when buying a car. With such a foundation, the used car market will definitely grow rapidly next year.
I made a simple calculation. It is estimated that the second-hand car transaction volume will be around 14.35 million in 22, which may be 3%-4% lower than the same period last year. It is expected to reach 17 million vehicles in 221. Why is it so emboldened? I believe that the market environment has improved, normal growth is in place, and the cause of the epidemic has a low base. I believe there will be an increase of about 15% next year.
my share is here, thank you!
This article comes from the author of Chejia, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.