If the referendums of these four Ukrainian states are successfully passed, and if the Russian State Duma quickly implements the relevant legal procedures, then the four states of Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporoge and Kherson will surely become the new territories of the Russian Federation. Under this precondition, if Ukraine continues to recover these territories (attack), the Russian-Ukrainian war will definitely escalate, which may not be transferred by anyone's unilateral will! Hungarian Prime Minister Orban recently predicted that the Russian-Ukrainian war may last for 78 years, which seems very reasonable.
Eight years ago, Crimea joined the Russian Federation by referendum. Now these four States copy the Crimean model, which is a bit of a tried-and-true rhythm. There is not much time left for Ukraine! If in the next six days (2 1 to 27), if Ukraine can quickly recover part of the territory of these four States, even a village and a mountain, it will be very lucky. I'm afraid these four States will never have anything to do with Ukraine again.
Since yesterday, the big news in the world has been reported by major news agencies all over the world. Four Ukrainian states-Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporoge-have announced that they will hold a referendum on joining the Russian Federation from September 23 to 27, and Russia will fulfill the legal procedures for investing in Russia in these regions as soon as September 28, becoming Russia's new territory! ! This means that the Russian-Ukrainian war may be fully upgraded after September 28! What kind of upgrade will it be? To what extent will it be promoted? Will Russia use tactical nuclear weapons? Will Russia treat the Slavic brothers in elmo like the Syrians? When the Russian-Ukrainian war lasted for more than 200 days, it was still slipping in the direction that people didn't want to see!
Once these four regions of Ukraine become the new territories of the Russian Federation, they will enjoy the same "treatment" as the other 86 administrative regions of Russia (the number of Russian first-level administrative regions will increase to 90). Russia will "defend" its territorial sovereignty in the following three ways-
(1) Russia will announce that Ukraine has invaded Russia. If the Ukrainian army continues to attack the four States that Russia has invested, the Russian army can "justify" the escalation of the war and attack Ukraine by any means. Medvedev has repeatedly stressed that the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine is not ruled out, that is, the enemy of "invasion" will be severely attacked.
(2) Russia has reason to mobilize the whole country. For more than 200 days, the most fatal shortcoming of Russia's special military action against Ukraine is the shortage of troops, because Russia cannot mobilize the whole country, and the reasons are always untenable. Now, if the enemy "invades" the territory of the Russian Federation, it is justified for the Russian Federation to carry out national mobilization and conscription because there is a legal basis.
(3) After these four states become the new territories of the Russian Federation, Russia is obliged to send more conventional troops to these areas to undertake daily security and defense. Such as the troops deployed by the Russian Federation in Crimea. Of course, everything has advantages and disadvantages. If these four States join the Russian Federation, Russia will have no buffer zone for direct confrontation with NATO, and Ukraine will rack its brains to join NATO.
Will Ukraine stop attacking? Can the United States and NATO stop him? Never. What the United States and the West yearn for is to fight proxy war, that is, to drag Russia into the quagmire of war. So they have made great efforts to feed Ukraine. Many people are accusing Zelensky of refusing to negotiate, but who knows that Zelensky is just a puppet. The Ukrainian army will definitely continue to attack! After the Russian-Ukrainian war escalated in an all-round way, Russia and Ukraine (the United States and the West) could not afford to lose. The most likely outcome is that the Yalta system may collapse! !