The valuation of Ali and Tencent first talk about the valuation of Tencent. According to the forecast, Tencent conservatively estimates that the profit growth rate will be around 24% in the next five years. At present, Tencent's real PE may be less than 30, and Tencent's valuation is also in a reasonable range.
Look at Ali again. In terms of cash flow, Ali's free cash flow index is very high. By March 2020, Ali's operating income was $710.97 billion, and its free cash flow reached $20.9 billion, which represented a profit margin of 29% in cash production.
Compared with Amazon, Amazon's cash production profit rate index is only about 7%, but its price-earnings ratio is several times that of Ali. The actual value of Ali is much higher than the current price from the data point of view.
Alibaba and Tencent executives reduced their holdings first. In the first year of 2020, Liu Chi Pinghe Ma successively reduced its holdings of Tencent by 500,000 shares and 5 million shares, and cashed in more than HK$ 2 billion. After June, Ma Hua Teng continued to reduce Tencent shares again, and cashed in * * * HK$ 1.996 million.
Alibaba didn't make any big moves before June. After June, founder Ma Yun reduced his holding of Alibaba shares by about 234 million shares, and the shareholding ratio fell below 5% for the first time, and the cash amount was about 43 billion yuan. Founder Cai Chongxin and Jack Ma reduced their holdings simultaneously, with a cumulative reduction of about 64 million shares.
The share prices of the two companies are still rising, and it seems that they have not been affected by the reduction of major shareholders.
The founder's intention to sell stocks Judging from the valuation of listed companies, the reduction of Tencent and Ali's executives can't explain anything, but more of their investment decisions.
First of all, as the founder of the company, it is a normal business behavior to reduce the stock. Ma Yun and Ma Hua Teng have delegated power to other managers in recent years. Ma Yun has entered a semi-retirement state and will naturally choose the right time to reduce his holdings.
Second, the stock market is hot after entering the second half of the year, and now is a good time to reduce its holdings.
Third, the major shareholders of Ali and Tencent reduced their holdings, indicating that major shareholders may have the willingness to invest in other directions. The reduction shows that they have the demand for cash and are no longer satisfied with the benefits brought by holding Tencent shares.
Fourth, money is just a number for them now. They can use the money to do more meaningful things. For example, Ma Yun can increase investment in public welfare undertakings, and Ma Hua Teng can get two more skins.
As for where the major shareholder's sword refers, it may be necessary to get a glimpse from the development plans of Ali and Tencent.