Eight possible reasons for the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines MH370
Core Tip: On the way from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 with 239 people on board suddenly disappeared after the weather was fine and the plane successfully entered the stratosphere for cruising, which continued to haunt aviation experts from all over the world. Many experts and the media have speculated on the reasons for the plane's disappearance.
The last information of the lost flight MH370 was at an altitude of 35,000 feet (10668 meters). Experts say that there are few failures when flying smoothly at high altitude around the ground 1 1 km. So the sudden disappearance of MH370 makes people wonder what happened on the plane, so that the pilot didn't even have time to make an emergency call.
Experts say it is too early to determine all the possibilities, no matter what the hypothesis is. Only after recovering the plane's data, tape recorder and checking the wreckage can people find the real clue to the problem. American media analysts said that the incident may take investigators months or even years to determine what happened on the flight.
guess
1 q: bomb attack?
A: Traditional hijackers will make demands.
Fake passports sparked speculation about terrorist attacks. Zhou Jisheng, an expert in aircraft manufacturing, said that man-made sabotage, such as carrying a bomb to detonate, caused disintegration in the air. "This is also a possibility. If the air crash happens very strangely, you will definitely doubt this problem. " There was a plane crash caused by a bomb before. Such as Pan Am 1988 and Air India 103.
Tang Jun, general manager of AVIC Aircraft Co., Ltd. said that if it is a terrorist attack, the attacker should be in the cabin, and it is impossible to rush into the cockpit to threaten the pilot, so the pilot should respond and send a signal. If the hijackers detonate the explosives, the plane will disintegrate in the air. This kind of passenger plane usually carries a lot of luggage. If it disintegrates, floating objects will be found in the falling sea. So this judgment is also unreasonable.
Experts said that the traditional hijacking opportunity hijacked the plane to an airport and put forward corresponding requirements. Similar to the "9. 1 1" incident, there are few hijackings in which planes are threatened by terrorists and fall into the sea.
Q: Communication system failure leads to loss of connection?
A: It's hard to happen on a Boeing 777.
It has been more than 48 hours since MH370 lost contact. Is there something wrong with the communication system, which makes the plane unable to contact with the outside world?
The senior captain with many years of flying experience said that there are four ways of communication between the plane and the ground, but all of them failed this time. Zhou Jisheng, an expert in aircraft manufacturing, said, "The reliability and performance of Boeing 777 aircraft are very high, and it is almost impossible to break everything. It must be an irresistible force from outside. " "The troops were unable to contact the ground, and all communication systems were lost. This is unlikely. " This plane has two engines, each with a generator and an emergency power supply. The loss of all these functions is unlikely to cause the aircraft to lose power. If the generator fails completely, it can still work on the battery for 30 minutes, which is enough time to send out a distress signal.
Q: Did the thunderstorm attack the plane?
A: The plane is basically under clear weather conditions in Wan Li.
Although the plane is designed to withstand the strongest storms, bad weather is still one of the security risks. Mr. Wang, a pilot of a well-known domestic civil aviation company, said that the situation of Malaysia Airlines MH370 may be due to bad weather, which led to the failure of aircraft instruments. The pilot reversed the concept of air and space and regarded the sea as land, which led to tragedy. This situation is more likely to happen in the sea flight at night. One is because of the fatigue of the pilots, and the other is that the sea and the sky are more difficult to distinguish. However, the average pilot has a reaction time, and it is basically impossible to send a signal.
However, according to the weather on the day of MH370, the weather was fine, the wind was small and the convection was small, which was basically a "calm" state. Only 9% of the disasters occurred in the smooth flight phase of the aircraft.
Zhou Jisheng, an expert in aircraft manufacturing, said that when the aircraft flew over10000m, it had entered the cruise phase and left the troposphere immediately. Lightning and thunderstorms are all formed at low altitude below the plane, and the plane is basically in a sunny weather state in Wan Li. However, turbulence may still occur at the edge of the troposphere at this time, which will only bring some bumps to the aircraft at most. "It's like driving on the highway. It's always stable and there is no car."
Tang Jun, general manager of AVIC Aircraft Co., Ltd. said that the thunderstorm weather on general routes can be predicted in advance. In this case, the flight may be delayed and the time will be adjusted.
Q: Engine failure, aircraft out of control?
A: There is enough time to make an emergency call after the failure.
Scott Hamilton, managing director of American aviation consulting company Leeham Co, analyzed that if all engines fail, the plane may taxi for 20 minutes, which gives the pilot plenty of time to make emergency calls. In 2009, an Airbus A320 of American Airlines lost engine power shortly after taking off from la guardia airport, new york. Although the plane was close to the ground, the captain still had a long time to contact the tower and forced the plane to land on the Hudson River.
5 q: 10,000 meters high in the air disintegrated?
A: One possibility of disintegration in the air is that the aircraft structure is damaged.
The personnel of the investigation team of the lost passenger plane said that the preliminary investigation showed that the possibility of disintegration of the passenger plane in the air increased. "So far, no remains have been found that can be completely confirmed. It is likely that the plane broke up at an altitude of 10,000 meters. If the plane falls into the water intact, the wreckage will be very concentrated. "
Zhou Jisheng believes that from the existing information, it is more likely that the plane will disintegrate in the air and it will not be able to report to the ground.
One possibility of aircraft disintegration in the air is that the aircraft structure is damaged, for example, the fuselage is directly broken. One of the reasons may be "fatigue". "Like people, it will be tiring to work, and there will be cracks in aircraft materials." No matter how good the plane is, there are fatigue problems. Because of this, aircraft need frequent maintenance and replacement, and there are also various management rules and regulations, which need continuous follow-up by aircraft manufacturers. It is the responsibility of the three parties to maintain, transform and inspect the airlines in time and carefully, as well as the supervision of the local government. 1 1 year-old Boeing 777 has no aging problem within its service life. However, if the aircraft is missing in maintenance and repair, it may still have fatigue problems.
Q: Unknown force majeure?
A: "Many things are beyond imagination and control."
Huang Huikang, ambassador to Malaysia, said yesterday, "Everyone should be patient. Many things are beyond imagination and control. " In response to the cause of the crash, Zhou Jisheng also said that this incident has surpassed the traditional analysis method and there may be irresistible factors. Now it has also increased a lot of imagination. "We need to think in a non-traditional direction." He said.
Tang Jun, general manager of AVIC Aircraft Co., Ltd. believes that there are all kinds of speculations, and some truth can be made from different angles, but they will all be overturned soon, so we can't make too many judgments before the final result comes out.
Q: Did the pilot fall into the sea on purpose? A: Suicide has happened, which is "very unpopular".
According to American media, there was an air crash caused by pilot suicide in the 1990s. An EgyptAir plane deliberately drove the plane into the sea because the pilot tried to commit suicide. Although government investigators have never officially announced this suicide method, experts who study air crashes are convinced that pilots who want to commit suicide have a tendency to choose this behavior.
If the pilot accidentally cancels the autopilot function of the plane, it will lead to a crash. In this case, the plane may fall 5-6 hours from the last contact point. But in this case, the radar should be able to detect the plane.
Mr. Wang, the pilot, said that unpopular speculations such as pilot suicide cannot be ruled out, but under normal circumstances, it is unlikely. Pilots may encounter an unprecedented emergency. He said that the situation similar to the MH370 aircraft is extremely rare. The pilot may have encountered an emergency beyond the usual emergency training and planning, or the pilot has never experienced or even seen such a situation. It caused an operation error and it was too late to send a signal.
Q: Space junk? Military attack?
A: The system will give an early warning several tens of seconds in advance.
The American media, which is good at "conspiracy theory", speculated whether the plane was accidentally hit by military weapons of some countries. On July 1988, the American aircraft carrier Vinson mistakenly shot down an Iranian Airlines plane, killing 290 passengers and crew on board. 1983 in September, a Korean air plane was shot down by a Russian fighter plane.
Mr. Wang, the pilot, said that civil airliners generally have anti-collision systems now. Civil aviation passenger planes all have established flight routes, and they basically don't collide at ordinary times. If the system finds that it may collide with another plane, it will give an early warning dozens of seconds in advance. In addition, at such a high altitude, the impact of birds is generally impossible, even if it hits.
Zhou Jisheng said that it is possible that foreign objects came from outside suddenly, such as space junk, or that the military shot them down, as happened before, but this possibility cannot be completely ruled out.
The ground can know all the information on the plane.
The senior captain with many years of flying experience said that through these communication methods, the ground can know all the information on the plane, including flight number, altitude, speed and heading.
● If the plane crashes.
The transponder can display the altitude change of the aircraft, and in addition, the data of various equipment on the aircraft will be transmitted in real time on the ground.
● Such as mechanical failure
For example, if the engine fails or a component fails, the ground monitoring can know the code of the aircraft failure through the radio communication system.
● In case of collision.
No matter on land or on water, the emergency positioning signal transmitter of the aircraft will automatically send out the positioning signal, but if the water is too deep, the signal may be attenuated.
Why can I dial the lost mobile phone?
If the operator can't find it, getting through is an oolong and can't be located.
According to the report of the Central Broadcasting Network, a family member of Lido Hotel in Beijing mentioned yesterday that his brother's phone was connected on the lost plane, but it was disconnected after two or three rings. This mobile phone number is a Singapore mobile phone number.
A Malaysia Airlines spokesman denied yesterday that this number could be dialed. The telecommunications company in Singapore replied that this number is overdue, and it is impossible to have the "call transfer" situation that people speculated before, which may be the sound of international long-distance calls during the transfer.
Mr. Chen, a person in the communication industry, said that if the mobile phone is really connected, it is technically possible to locate the location of the mobile phone. "The positioning of operators is generally not based on GPS, but based on base stations. A base station only covers a few kilometers in Fiona Fang, so as long as he is registered, the operator can find his range. " The insider said, "For example, if you are in Bangkok, your mobile phone has opened international roaming. Then, after you turn it on, you first register with the operator in Bangkok, and then feed back the signal to the domestic operator through a switching system. In this way, China operators will know that you are somewhere in Bangkok. "
He also pointed out that if operators are willing to cooperate, as long as the phone is really connected, operators can find out where the phone has been transferred and whether it is answered locally.
If the operator can't find it, it means that the phone is not turned on, and getting through is an oolong, which may be a cross line.
In addition, every mobile phone in the world has a unique identification code, so as long as the mobile phone is turned on, it is technically possible to locate the position of the mobile phone through this identification code.
Why doesn't the black box work?
The signal coverage is limited and it is possible to find it near it.
Zhou Jisheng, chief designer and aircraft manufacturing expert of Guangdong Changsheng Aircraft Design Co., Ltd., said that the black box itself is not black, but bright red with reflective stripes outside. In addition, it has an underwater positioning beacon, which can send a signal even if it falls into the water.
However, Zhou Jisheng said that if the black box falls to the bottom of the sea and is blocked by many objects, the underwater positioning beacon may be blocked, and the signal will weaken and it will not be easy to be found.
Zhou Jisheng said that because the black box needs a battery to last for a long time, the power is designed to be small and the positioning signal is not strong, so it can only be found near it.
Another expert believes that it cannot be arbitrarily said that the black box does not work. The black box doesn't send a signal until it crashes. If the black boxes send out radio signals, it will be difficult for land probes to find them in the deep sea and the open sea. By the time China, Viet Nam, Malaysia and other relevant countries receive them, the power supply may have failed.
Electrostatic interference lost the plane?
The plane itself has the ability to shield static electricity and can also prevent lightning strikes.
According to foreign media reports, before Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 lost contact, the pilot of another Boeing 777 contacted Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 at the request of Vietnam Air Traffic Control Center.
The pilot, who asked for anonymity, pointed out that the answer at that time might be the captain or the co-pilot.
"There was a lot of interference ... electrostatic interference ... but I heard the voice of muttering from the other end. This is the last time we contacted them, and we can't contact them anymore. "
Zhou Jisheng thinks that the static electricity reported by the media sounds incomprehensible. If it really happens, it will only make the cause of the accident even more bizarre.
"Static electricity is caused by friction. For aircraft, the biggest electrostatic threat comes from lightning. " He said that the Malaysia Airlines plane has flown to almost stratospheric height, and there is no possibility of lightning. "Where does high-altitude lightning come from?"
In addition, the aircraft itself has a strong electrostatic shielding ability, which can prevent lightning, and even if there is lightning, the aircraft can protect itself.
And basically no static electricity is generated inside the plane. Zhou Jisheng said that the air inside the plane mainly comes from the air exchange rate of the air conditioner, and the temperature and humidity are artificially adjusted, so it is difficult to generate static electricity caused by strong friction. Even if people are exposed to static electricity generated by man-made fibers in dry winter, energy will be released quickly through small sparks.
In addition, he said that the high-energy static electricity that affects the aircraft is not man-made.