The "Trader-Free" Forest Garden ushered in the plunge in Man Cang in 2008, and its trust lost nearly 60% of its original value.
"The so-called sunshine private placement is to announce the net value and publicly buy and sell products. How does the product operate? As far as the manager is concerned, he said that his driver's annual salary is several. Do you believe it? " Lin Yuan's "low-key confession" can't be recognized by private equity circles in Shanghai.
During the bull market in 2007, Kweichow Moutai (174.42,1.61.93%) paid a dividend of 8.36 yuan per 10 share at the end of 2007; Wuliangye (29.96, 0.76, 2.60%) will not increase its capital or distribute it in 2007; Yunnan Baiyao (52.96, -0. 13, -0.24%) distributed cash 1 yuan for every 10 share; China Merchants Bank (17.49,0.12,0.69%) pays dividends to 2.8 yuan for every 10 share. If you only benefit from these dividends, then the annualized rate of return of forest parks is not high. And his driver will never get an annual salary of 20 million.
After the bear market in 2008, some of these former stock market champions closed down, some fled, some disappeared, and some were once rumored to confront customers.
No wonder rumors keep coming and going.
At the end of last year, Ruan Jie, the head of Shaanxi Xinpeng, who was once known as the "No.1 expert in stock trading in Sanqin", was taken to court by investors because the actual growth rate of the unit net value of Xinpeng Phase I he managed was -68.28%, ranking first from the bottom among more than 70 sunshine private placements under SZITIC. At the beginning of this year, Wang Jianzhong, the chairman of Jingshoufang, nicknamed "Golden Finger", was fined 65.438+25 billion yuan by the CSRC, and was later arrested on suspicion of manipulating the stock market.
The title of "hero" is frequently crowned in different private placements at different times.
Zhao Danyang, which announced the collective liquidation in early 2008, was really trampled by the cow's hoof in the first half of 2008. According to the data of SZITIC, the net growth rate of "Heart of a Child" in the second half of 2007 was only 8.6 1%, which was far from the annual return rate of partial stock open-end funds exceeding 100% in the same period. Many people in Shenzhen private equity circles disdained to say that Zhao Danyang didn't understand investment at all. He is a loser in the private equity circle, and all of them missed more than 3500 points.
But today, when the bodies on the beach were examined after the low tide, Zhao Danyang was not among them.
Living in the capital market is the last word.
But Binhe seems to have a hard time, and they also flaunt "value investment" as usual. There are even rumors that Dan Bin was attacked by investors at the end of last year. According to Chaoyang perpetual statistics, the net unit value of the trust product "Tongwei 1" managed by Li Chi as of June 65438+February 19, 2008 was 0.788 yuan, down 2 1%.
But this is not the final list of heroes. According to Peng, deputy general manager of Ruifu Information, Tongwei is a company that combines value investment and trend investment well. Because no one knows when the next bull market will come. What they may lose at present is only the efficiency of the use of funds.
From 6 124.04 to 2566.53, in the past nine months, the stock investors in China suffered the most serious crash. In the face of yesterday's sad stock market, what are those people who used to call the shots in the stock market doing now? The banner of value investment also failed to spare the forest garden, known as the "stock god", from this round of plunge. However, he showed an unusual composure. He said that he stopped watching vegetables and spent more time sleeping every day. All he has to do now is "believe in himself and hold on to it."
Persistence is the foundation of making money.
The interview with Lin Yuan was conducted in his office in Guo Mao. This is not a company of Linyuan, but a spacious and bright VIP room provided by a securities company for Linyuan. He said that he seldom comes here because his home is in the west of Beijing. "I'm too lazy to run. I sleep at home unless I have something to do."
Although China A-shares have weakened in the past six months, Linyuan, which likes Man Cang's operation, has not changed its style. "My position has always been full, but now I won't buy it in this market situation. But this will never change my investment philosophy. "
When many investors were thrown out because of the sudden plunge, the stability of the forest garden was indeed somewhat different.
Lin Yuan said that the law of the stock market is: the bull market blows bubbles and the bear market squeezes bubbles; Bubbles will be blown out sooner or later, and eventually they will be squeezed clean and appear again and again. But no matter how the market looks for the stock that is sure to make money, as long as it is firmly grasped, it will win the final victory. "According to my investment experience in the past 20 years, the time for a stock to rise sharply may be only 10%, and the remaining 90% of the days are either adjustment or decline. If you hold this stock 90% of the time, but you can't stand the' long suffering' and sell it before the last 10% comes, it can only be a kind of sorrow. " Lin Yuan said with a smile.
"After my calculation, the future 15 China's compound economic growth rate will reach 4%, so I have confidence in China's economy. With this bottom, I am not worried about the China stock market at all, let alone the stocks I bought. However, in this big market, I do more sleeping and playing. "
Lin Yuan said that he seldom talks about stocks and related matters with anyone for a simple reason: he is afraid that other people's ideas will affect his investment decision. "I don't stare at trading software at any time like many investors, and watch the changes in stocks in minutes. I even want to go to a place where there is no telephone or internet. If someone asks me what is the secret of success, I think it is to insist on value investment and put aside all selfish distractions. " Lin Yuan said with a smile.
In Linyuan's view, buying stocks is the same as doing other industries. If you choose the right direction, you must go on. "People who change their minds can't make money anywhere."
Money-making machines are good companies.
Many people think that the money earned in the stock market is the money of other investors, which means that if you earn money, others will lose. Indeed, in the spring tide of the capital market, some people made money and some people lost money. But in Lin Yuan's view, the money earned in the stock market should belong to listed companies. Similarly, "a good company should be a machine that can make a lot of money."
Lin Yuan said that he never bought any company easily. "It is necessary to track for at least three years. It really feels good. Just buy a small amount and try it, and then keep tracking. I feel really no problem, and then I will buy a lot. " In Linyuan's view, companies that increase 10 or even 20 times in the next three years are all industry leaders with the characteristics of "baby's equity, giant's brand". "Many Japanese old ladies who sold vegetables in the 1950s invested in Sony shares at that time, and now some of them have entered the ranks of the richest people in Japan." Lin Yuan smiled and said, "That's the truth."
In the investment career of nearly 20 years, Linyuan has also summed up its own set of criteria for choosing companies that can really make money.
First of all, judging whether a company can make money for shareholders depends on the total amount of money it makes (absolute profit). Secondly, the gross profit margin must be high. Lin Yuan said that he would not consider companies with gross profit margin below 65,438+08% when investing. Of course, it would be better if he could find a company with a gross profit margin of 80%-90%. Third, we should pay attention to the profitability of a company. Generally speaking, Linyuan usually considers companies with a profit of at least 3-4 cents per share. In addition, the dynamic value of PE (cost-benefit ratio) and the change of gross profit margin are also important indicators selected by Linyuan Company. Because Lin Yuan thinks that the gross profit margin of the enterprise he invests in must be stable or rising, otherwise he will definitely not invest in this enterprise.
"From the appearance, the company with' small input and large output' is a money-making machine, not an increase in investment to make a profit." Lin Yuan said: "The same is true of other industries. Everyone wants to invest in 1 billion earnings 1 billion instead of investing in 200 million earnings 1 billion profits. That is,' the input is certain and the output is infinite. "
Make money until your hair turns white.
1999, a friend said to Linyuan, which was worth over 100 million at that time, "My company is going to be listed in Hong Kong. Come and buy some." At the invitation of a friend, Lin Yuan went to Hongkong.
"At that time, the issue price was HK$ 65,438 +0.28. I thought it was too high, so I didn't buy it. " Lin Yuan said with a smile: "Of course, his stock was also sold and bought by some international institutions such as Morgan and Goldman Sachs." However, shortly after the stock was issued, it was hit by the financial turmoil and its share price fell to 50 cents. At this time, Lin Yuan thought it was time to sell, so he bought some. Soon the stock continued to fall to 1.9 cents, and finally the cost held by Linyuan was 0.3 yuan.
When he bought the stock for 50 cents in the forest garden, he set up an account. Lin Yuan said: "This company is engaged in real estate, and its net assets per share are more than one yuan and ninety cents, but it fell to that price at that time, which is equivalent to only 1700 yuan per square meter of its house, or even as low as several hundred yuan. But the reality is that at that time, its house sold for seven or eight thousand square meters, and its net asset value was calculated according to more than five thousand yuan per square meter. It seems that the stock price is indeed undervalued. "
"However, despite this, this stock just didn't rise, it rose to more than 60 cents a year at most, and then fell back to 34 cents. I held 30% of the company's outstanding shares at that time. I think I only sold this stock in 2 yuan. In this way, it was not until 2003 that this stock finally rose. " Lin Yuan said gloomily, "Then that friend called and said,' Lin Yuan, did you make money?' I said to him angrily,' I will never deal with you again. Although I made money, it was not easy. Later, I summed up my experience, and I shouldn't participate in uncertain investments. I took part in the results hastily until my hair turned white. "
Hibernation therapy is also kung fu.
Every time Lin Yuan buys a stock, he intervenes at the price that he thinks has investment value, that is, the price at the time of buying should be reasonable or undervalued. But Lin Yuan is a person after all. Many times undervalued stocks don't go up, and even he doesn't know when these stocks will go up. Lin Yuan's method is simple-when he finds an undervalued company and buys it decisively, he will wait until the stock price rises like an animal.
In April, 2005, the forest garden once encountered such a "hibernation". At that time, he borrowed money to buy China Merchants Bank convertible bonds at an average price of 102.50 yuan/share. Before the share reform in early 2006, its price was still around 102 yuan/share. In the past year, the price fluctuated between 10 1 ~ 120 yuan. Later, I bought Shanghai Airport, and the average price was 13 yuan/share. The price of Shanghai Airport fluctuated between 12 and 15 yuan in the months after purchase, and he "hibernated" again. In Linyuan's view, this "hibernation" is actually to accumulate strength, waiting for the opportunity when the stock market falls, and will eventually wake up. Some people call this "hibernation therapy" the "tortoise policy". mountain forest